Edition of August 8, 2026 · built from 6,843 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:00 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Runway at 45% this morning. · ▼ 38 points overnight · settles in 145 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 170000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 170K | Culture | 13% ▼ 65 7d: ▼ 62 |
| Super Troopers 3 Rotten Tomatoes score? Surging Above 40 | Culture | 94% ▲ 66 7d: ▲ 75 |
| Will OpenAI release Astra before Aug 21, 2026? Before Aug 21, 2026 | Everything Else | 4% ▼ 62 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Will The Outlaw Cherie Lee & Other Western Tales by Shaboozey have above 35000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 35K | Culture | 4% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 20 |
| Will the average U.S. price of a Chipotle Chicken Burrito for August 2026 be at least $9.81? Surging At least $9.81 | Everything Else | 60% ▲ 53 7d: ▲ 53 |
| Will The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare: Season 1 be Top Global Netflix Show on Aug 10, 2026? Surging The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare: Season 1 | Culture | 92% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Wyndham Championship: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 10? Jordan L. Smith | Golf | 67% ▲ 39 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will the maximum temperature be <74° in San Francisco on Aug 8, 2026? 73° or below | News | 88% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 41 |
| Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.1? Above 334.1 | Economy | 26% ▼ 37 |
| Wyndham Championship: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 5? Jordan L. Smith | Golf | 50% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 40 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act? Before Oct 1, 2026 | Politics | in 5 hours | 82% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? Yes | Everything Else | later today | 24% — |
| Will Benjamin James win the Wyndham Championship? Benjamin James | Golf | later today | 12% ▼ 7 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will Joaquin Niemann win the LIV Golf New York? Joaquin Niemann | Everything Else | later today | 80% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 75 |
| Will Quillan Salkilld win the Gamrot vs Salkilld professional MMA fight scheduled for Aug 8, 2026? Quillan Salkilld | UFC | later today | 57% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Donald Trump make between 200 and 219 Truth Social posts the week of Aug 2, 2026? 200-219 | Everything Else | tomorrow | 57% ▲ 22 7d: ▲ 47 |
| One Night Only Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 47 | Culture | in 2 days | 47% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Tony Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 | Culture | in 2 days | 60% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Aug 10, 2026? Ceasefire | Politics | in 2 days | 12% ▼ 4 7d: ▼ 44 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 76.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 10, 2026? Above $76.49 | Commodities | in 2 days | 56% ▼ 9 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4337 USD/t.oz on August 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4337 | Commodities | in 2 days | 54% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes | Politics | in 3 days | 30% — |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes · settles in 82 days | Economy | 48% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 20 |
| One Night Only Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 47 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 47% ▲ 26 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%? Francesca Hong, ≥15% · settles in 368 days | Politics | 60% ▲ 6 7d: ▼ 24 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 39 days | Economy | 64% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will Gianni Infantino leave from being President of FIFA in 2026? Yes · settles in 146 days | Politics | 32% ▲ 5 7d: ▼ 6 |
| Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026? Yes · settles in 60 days | Everything Else | 74% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 27 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 822 days | Politics | 21% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 822 days | Everything Else | 18% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Irem Kurt win the Mamedova vs Kurt: W15 Astana Quarterfinal match? Irem Kurt · settles today | Tennis | 16% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 145 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 120 days | Sports | 84% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 before Aug 11, 2026? Max Miller (before 8/11) · settles in 10 days | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 23 7d: ▼ 30 |
| GDP growth in 2032? 2.1% to 2.5% · settles in 2396 days | Economy | 14% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 327 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will petal by Ariana Grande have above 170000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 31, 2026 - August 6, 2026 tracking week? Above 170K · settles tomorrow | Culture | 13% ▼ 65 7d: ▼ 62 |
| Will Benjamin James win the Wyndham Championship? Benjamin James · settles today | Golf | 12% ▼ 7 7d: ▲ 12 |
| GDP growth in 2036? 6.1% or Above · settles in 4163 days | Economy | 12% — 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 822 days | Politics | 10% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Felitsata Dorofeeva-Rybas win the Dorofeeva-Rybas vs Paganetti: W15 Kursumlijska Banja Semifinal match? Felitsata Dorofeeva-Rybas · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will Denislava Glushkova win the Herazo vs Glushkova: W15 Kursumlijska Banja Semifinal match? Denislava Glushkova · settles today | Tennis | 94.0% — |
| Ice Cream Man Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 25 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 97.5% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 52 |
| Will Drake have above 12.5M daily views at any point during August 3, 2026 - August 9, 2026? Above 12.5M · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 93.5% ▲ 13 7d: ▲ 49 |
| Super Troopers 3 Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 · settles in 2 days | Culture | 94.0% ▲ 66 7d: ▲ 75 |
| Will Drake have above 12M daily views at any point during August 3, 2026 - August 9, 2026? Above 12M · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 98.5% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 13 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4197 USD/t.oz on August 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4197 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 97.0% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 69.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 10, 2026? Above $69.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 98.5% — |