Edition of August 9, 2026

Edition of August 9, 2026 · built from 6,730 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:00 AM ET.

80%

Today’s Number

Will the monthly average spot price of DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) eTT be above $22.90 in September 2026?

Market-consensus odds put Above $22.90 at 80% this morning. · ▲ 49 points overnight · settles in 53 days · on unusually heavy volume

Today’s move is bigger than 86% of this question’s daily moves — unusual for this market, not just large in the abstract.
Has traded between 30% and 80% over 8 tracked days — today is its high.
Buyers and sellers are 39 points apart — a thin market, so read this number as a range, not a point.

What changed

What Moved

Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.

Question		Odds
One Night Only Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 47	Culture	2% ▼ 77 7d: ▼ 20
Will Ariana Grande have above 21M daily views at any point during August 3, 2026 - August 9, 2026? Surging Above 21M	Everything Else	96% ▲ 82 7d: ▲ 76
Will No Me Arrepiento de Sentir Tanto by KAROL G have above 55000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 07, 2026 - August 13, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 55K	Culture	10% ▼ 70 7d: ▼ 32
Wyndham Championship: Will Michael Brennan finish top 5? Michael Brennan	Golf	81% ▲ 55 7d: ▲ 75
Wyndham Championship: Will Michael Brennan finish top 10? Surging Michael Brennan	Golf	94% ▲ 51 7d: ▲ 81
Will Justin Bieber have above 15.75M daily views at any point during August 3, 2026 - August 9, 2026? Above 15.75M	Everything Else	40% ▼ 56 7d: ▼ 56
Wyndham Championship: Will Kevin Yu finish top 20? Surging Kevin Yu	Golf	88% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 71
Will Morgan Wallen have above 5.5M daily views at any point during August 3, 2026 - August 9, 2026? Above 5.5M	Everything Else	6% ▼ 49 7d: ▼ 66
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $92.00 by Aug 31, 2026? 92.01 or above	Commodities	61% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 44
Will the Russell 2000 Index be at least $3,200 in August 2026? At least $3,200	Everything Else	52% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 32

What to watch next

What to Watch Next

Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.

Question		Resolves	Odds
Will Karan (IND) Singh win the Borisiouk vs Singh: Qualification Round 1 match? Karan (IND) Singh	Tennis	in 2 hours	42% —
Will the Fukuoka Hawks win by over 1.5 runs? Fukuoka Hawks wins by over 1.5 runs	Everything Else	in 3 hours	48% —
Will Jeanine Pirro announce their departure as United States Attorney for the District of Columbia before Sep 1, 2026? Before Sep 1, 2026	Everything Else	in 5 hours	20% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 37
Las Vegas vs New York women's Pro Basketball game: Las Vegas wins? Las Vegas	WNBA	in 10 hours	24% ▼ 28 7d: ▼ 31
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Aug 10, 2026? Ceasefire	Politics	tomorrow	20% ▲ 8 7d: ▼ 35
One Night Only Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 46	Culture	tomorrow	16% ▼ 78 7d: ▼ 78
Tony Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94	Culture	tomorrow	84% ▲ 15 7d: ▲ 68
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 77.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 10, 2026? Above $77.49	Commodities	tomorrow	56% ▲ 9 7d: ▲ 3
Will the gold close price be above 4347 USD/t.oz on August 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4347	Commodities	tomorrow	52% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 1
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? Yes	Politics	tomorrow	74% —
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? Yes	Economy	in 3 days	32% —
Will the President's approval rating be between 39.1 and 39.3 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.1 to 39.3	Politics	in 5 days	26% —

Still open

Up in the Air

The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.

Question		Odds
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? Yes · settles in 81 days	Economy	48% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 19
Will Darline Graham finish 1st in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 367 days	Politics	62% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 22
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.0 ? Above 334.0 · settles in 10 days	Economy	36% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 4
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 38 days	Economy	64% — 7d: ▲ 24
Will Joaquin Niemann win the LIV Golf New York? Joaquin Niemann ·	Everything Else	74% ▼ 6 7d: ▲ 69
Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026? Yes · settles in 59 days	Everything Else	74% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 26
Will Gianni Infantino leave from being President of FIFA in 2026? Yes · settles in 145 days	Politics	25% ▼ 9 7d: ▼ 16
Will Tom Kim win the Wyndham Championship? Tom Kim ·	Golf	22% ▲ 19 7d: ▲ 20
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 821 days	Politics	21% — 7d: ▲ 1
Will Ksenia Zaytseva win the Bertacchi vs Zaytseva: W75 Kursumlijska Banja Round of 32 match? Ksenia Zaytseva · settles today	Tennis	80% —
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 821 days	Everything Else	18% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 144 days	Everything Else	16% — 7d: ▼ 3
One Night Only Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 46 · settles tomorrow	Culture	16% ▼ 78 7d: ▼ 78
Tony Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 · settles tomorrow	Culture	84% ▲ 15 7d: ▲ 68
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 119 days	Sports	84% —
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 326 days	NBA	13% — 7d: ▼ 1
GDP growth in 2036? 6.1% or Above · settles in 4162 days	Economy	12% — 7d: ▲ 10
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 821 days	Politics	10% — 7d: ▼ 2

Basically Decided

Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.

Question		Likelihood
Ice Cream Man Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 25 · settles tomorrow	Culture	97.5% — 7d: ▲ 52
Teremoana Teremoana vs Deandre Savage Winner? Teremoana Teremoana · settles in 3 days	Boxing	95.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2
Tony Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 92 · settles tomorrow	Culture	97.5% — 7d: ▲ 27
Will average gas prices be above $3.990? Above 3.990 · settles tomorrow	Everything Else	98.0% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 22
Will Jan Sebesta win the Weber vs Sebesta: M25 Muttenz Round of 32 match? Jan Sebesta · settles today	Tennis	98.5% —
Will Ariana Grande have above 21M daily views at any point during August 3, 2026 - August 9, 2026? Above 21M · settles in 2 days	Everything Else	95.5% ▲ 82 7d: ▲ 76
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 73.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 10, 2026? Above $73.49 · settles tomorrow	Commodities	94.5% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 3
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 73.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 10, 2026? Above $73.99 · settles tomorrow	Commodities	93.5% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 5